Force of mortality formula A. Third Gompertz (1862) [13] was a version of the second Gompertz formula above. J. 1“. Another way to assume specific behavior of tpx is to use its connection with the force of mortality function. We would expect 455 (0. 15 age (year) Hazard Rate White Male White Female Black Male Black Female Peng Zeng (Auburn University)STAT 7780 { Lecture NotesFall 2017 11 / 41 Constant force of mortality (CF) assumption An alternative fractional age assumption posits a constant force of mortality (which we’ll denote by µ⇤ x) between integer ages: Constant Force of Mortality Assumption µ x+s CF= µ⇤ x, 0 s < 1 We can find the value of this constant force of mortality, allowing Aug 9, 2018 · The terminology "force of mortality" is not arbitrarily chosen. Mathematical Definition of the Force of Mortality only on age. 9(b)], London writes the same formula using ~t,,l÷, for the left-hand side. The term β might be said to describe the ‘actuarial ageing rate’, in that its magnitude determines how fast the rate of dying will increase with the addition of extra years. McCUTCHEON, M. (Uniform Distribution — De Moivre’s Law) The force of mortality (FM) is for . In the previous lectures we assumed this implicitly and treated (a) and (b) as being equivalent. gla. 12@research. Suppose q x is a non-select or aggregate mortality and q [x]+ t;t= 0; ;n 1 is select mortality with selection period n. e. 99,243 53 92,404 One approach to approximating survival and force-of-mortality functions at non-integer values is to use analytical or what statisticians call parametric models S(x; θ) arising in Examples (i)-(v) above, where θ denotes in each case the vector of real parameters needed to specify the model. /, = force of mortality. Solution: First of all, the joint distribution of Exercise 10 The force of mortality for a certain population is exactly half the sum of the forces of mortality in two standard mortality tables, denoted A and B. It is identical in concept to failure rate, also called hazard function, in reliability theory. Find expressions for the APV for the following types of insurances: whole life insurance; n-year term life insurance; n-year endowment insurance; and cases concerns the Gompertz-Makeham law when the force of mortality grows exponen-tially as µ(x)=Beαx +A, where A, B and α are parameters. 3 days ago · The hazard function (also known as the failure rate, hazard rate, or force of mortality) h(x) is the ratio of the probability density function P(x) to the survival function S(x), given by h(x) = (P(x))/(S(x)) (1) = (P(x))/(1-D(x)), (2) where D(x) is the distribution function (Evans et al. to the total force of mortality, the remedy for which (in constructing mortality tables by Mr. Understanding the Force of Mortality in Actuarial Science. $\mu_{x}=\lim_{t\to 0}\frac{_tq_x}{t} $ If you're working from a typical annual life table, one approximation may be found as follows: $p_x=\exp(-\int_0^1\mu_{x+t}dt)$ $\int_0^1\mu_{x+t}dt\approx \mu_{x+\frac12}$ (e. Essentially, the force of mortality measures the instantaneous rate of mortality at a specific age or during a specified period. All three measures of mortality have stochastic force of mortality Yongjie Wang Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, University Avenue, G128QQ Glasgow, United Kingdom. Jun 20, 2024 · The first object of the present paper is to bring before the members of the Institute some model tables, which I have constructed shewing the force of mortality and the expectations of life based on a single value of log c, combined with certain constant values of A in the formula Constant force of mortality (CF) assumption An alternative fractional age assumption posits a constant force of mortality (which we’ll denote by µ∗ x) between integer ages: Constant Force of Mortality Assumption µ x+s CF= µ∗ x, 0 ≤s <1 We can find the value of this constant force of mortality, allowing Understanding the Force of Mortality in Actuarial Science. ), the age-independent mortality component is often negligible. 100,000) - called the radix of the life table. Now we consider the situation when the force of mortality (or mortality rates) is a function of age and the time since a certain event known as stationary population represented by the mortality table. The interest theory allows us to express the present values of certain payment Constant Force of Mortality# If force of mortality is constant, then future lifetime is exponentially distributed. 1. (Force of mortality) The force of mortality of a random variable X {\displaystyle X} is μ X ( x ) = − S X ′ ( x ) S X ( x ) {\displaystyle \mu _{X}(x)={\frac {-S_{X}'(x)}{S_{X}(x)}}} . Sep 1, 2012 · In the language of current actuarial science, the first retiree (1) believes that his/her instantaneous force of mortality (denoted by λ DfM (t)) will grow at a deterministic rate until he/she eventually dies, while the second retiree (2) believes that his/her force of mortality (denoted by λ SfM (t)) will grow at stochastic (but measurable tables, where the single force of decrement is equal to the force for that decrement in the multiple decrement models. Then for this case, we have E Z2 = 2A x. Derive an explicit formula for the probability that the smoker will live longer than the nonsmoker, i. Asanequation,itis: Mx ≈ αexp(βx), where x is age and α and β are free parameters (i. Please list any fees and grants from, employment by, consultancy for, shared ownership in or any close relationship with, at any time over the preceding 36 months, any organisation whose interests may be affected by the publication of the response. It also has a vertical asymptote at . The Force of Mortality formula can be expressed as: forceOfMortality = (age, initialPopulation, annualDeaths) => initialPopulation Chapter 2. 13). In: Tabeau E. The discontinuties in the forces of mortality at all integral ages do not make much sense. 455% of 100,000) to die in their first year of life, leaving 100,000 - 455 = 99,545: the third column of the Table shows the remaining number, and the final column shows the number dying each year. Lesson 8: Survival Distributions: Select Mortality When mortality depends on the initial age as well as duration, it is known as select mortality, since the person is selected at that age. Example 2 Suppose that the survival function of a new born is S X(t) = 85 4−t4 854, for 0 < t < 85. three terms, each representing a distinct component of mortality. Sep 3, 2020 · Chapter 2 in Dickson, Hardy & Waters (2nd edition) The force of mortality at ages 80 to 120. . v representing the age at death. , they may vary be-tween populations and over time); there are other text [4, Formula 2. (Exponential Distribution — Constant Force) The FM Force of mortality example Again, assume that the survival function for a newborn is given by S 0(x) = 8(x + 2)−3 1 Find the force of mortality, µ x. Then for all t n;q Balducci assumption and constant force of mortality. Gompertz's formula) is usually sought in a change of the constants of the formula after certain intervals. From equation (3. 6. Eynon Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE in the Mathematics Program YOUNGSTOWN STATE UNIVERSITY December, 2011 Sep 19, 2018 · I got the answer in the comment section . Assume also that there is a constant force of interest and a constant force of mortality x that describes survival beyond age x. For application in Insurance, we are preparing to value uncertain payment streams in which times of payment may also be uncertain. 0102014559835175 Understanding the Force of Mortality in Actuarial Science. ac. 104, 20 p. a = present value of an annuity. The way I think of force of mortality is the "mortality equivalent of the force of interest". Dec 28, 2024 · About MathWorld; MathWorld Classroom; Contribute; MathWorld Book; wolfram. 00 0. x + n is: n p x = 1 n qx = `x+n=`x. for 1, 5 or 10-year age classes). Figure 1 illustrates the location of s-ages in the survival function and the corresponding force of mortality for Swedish females in 1950 and 2018. n d x = `x `x+n. about 2. [ 15 ] Notes Oct 7, 2021 · BACKGROUND The Gompertz force of mortality (hazard function) is usually expressed in terms of a, the initial level of mortality, and b, the rate at which mortality increases with age. As explained below, the weaker relation between M and b compared with the one between a and b is a second strong argument for using M rather than a. It is a measure of deaths per head of population per unit time, where in this case the unit of time is 12 months. 5 Recursive Formulas for Expectations of Life . This function is positive and increasing for all . Comparison of Logistic Force of Mortality Models for Predicting Life Table Probabilities of Death: A Simulation-Based Approach by James R. Hence, expressing the Gompertz force of mortality in terms of band M, as in equation (3), provides deeper understanding than expressing the Gompertz force of mortality in terms of aand b. Find a xand a:nj. The force of mortality is a continuous function representing the instantaneous death rate. Namely: CFM For a fixed non-negative integer x and t ∈ [0, 1), let µ(x +t) ≡ µ(x) for all t ∈ [0, 1). Feb 7, 2012 · Even more we develop the simpler 2-parameter health state model and an extension of a model expressing the infant mortality to a 4-parameter model which is the simpler model providing very good Example 5-5: Important SettingAssume a constant force of mortality x and a constant force of interest . In Statistics, it is hazard rate (or hazard function). In Engineering, it is called failure rate. Hence, expressing the Gompertz force of mortality in terms of b and M , as in equation (3), provides deeper understanding than expressing the Gompertz force of mortality in terms of a and b. Given the characteristic age-pattern of human mortality, numerous mathematical models have been pro-posed for the estimation of mortality levels as a function of attained age. The force of mortality is obtained by the approximate formula: where p = 1 - q. [3/(t + 2)] 2 Consider the shape of µ x as a function of x. Force of Mortality. We’ll begin with the two most basic mortality laws: the constant force of mortality and the uniform distribution. Thus Hz = (4A+M)/2 for all x. Chapter 2 - Survival Models - Statistics The Formula: Force of Mortality. Google Scholar Thiele TN (1871) On a mathematical formula to express the rate of mortality throughout the whole of life, tested by a series of observations made use of by the danish life insurance company of 1871. Incidentally, the name intensity of mortality did not stick. But the texts and other papers that describe the building of the single tables like the Mortality Table are not extended enough to describe the method used to separate each decrement when they are dependent. When we calculate the expectation at twice the force of interest, we denote it with the symbol 2A x. Impressive reductions in the force of mortality at most ages have been Constant force of mortality The UDD approximation assumes a certain (linear) form of tpx, t ∈ [0, 1). In Actuarial science, it is known as force of mortality. \(_tp_x = e^{-\mu t}\) Dec 19, 2020 · Age-specific mortality data are usually available in discrete intervals (e. 2) and (2. So we calculate mu = -ln(p100) which comes to 0. the hazard rate. , Heathcote C. 44 (which is somewhere between the actual rates at age 100 and 101, as we'd expect). I focus As we have seen in Doray (2002), the simple formula qx ∼= 1− e−µx+1/2 obtained with the midpoint rule Zx+1 x µydy∼= µx+1/2 is often used in demography to estimate the force of mortality from a life table, with µx+1/2 ∼= −ln(1− q x) = −lnpx. In usual demographic analysis, force of mortality is a function of one variable, that is, of age. As explained below, the weaker relation between Mand bcompared with the one between a 2. wang. Example 1. It is this gradual but constant variation of the rate of increase in one direction, and the fact of its being uniformly found in all Jul 22, 2014 · Background: The Gompertz force of mortality (hazard function) is usually expressed in terms of a, the initial level of mortality, and b, the rate at which mortality increases with age. This formula seemed to have been in advance of its time but was too complex for normal practical use. g. Some mortality laws. (Expected) number of deaths between ages x and x + 1: dx = `x `x+1. Now we recall that tpx = e x t and thus f x(t) = xe x t for t >0 Forwhole lifeit Jul 25, 2017 · If we do this then we should use the formula on page 14 of Chapter 3 to calculate this "average" mu. s = amount of an annuity. Constant force of mortality. Feb 25, 2021 · 1. 96 Practice Problems for Section 1. Then we can calculate the variance of Z: V[Z] = E Z 2 −E [Z] = 2A x − A x 2 We may also be interested in various percentiles or functions of Z May 20, 2015 · BACKGROUND The Gompertz force of mortality (hazard function) is usually expressed in terms of a, the initial level of mortality, and b, the rate at which mortality increases with age. It is consistent with that used in Formulas (2. 10 0. All these assumptions lead to a continuous l,+, for all x >_ 0 and 0 < t < 1 but the corresponding forces of mortality are discontinuous at integral ages. increasing hazard rate), or (3) a Definition of , the force of mortality. A student has suggested the approximation ax (all + ab)/2. Say you have a population of N at time t, normal survival decrements say qx tells you that within one time step (t to t+1), this much of the population will exit. Formula (1) leads to an upper limit of BID for pz and it is not without interest to note that the numerical values of BID obtained from the graduation of human mortality data are of the same order as the force of mortality which can be deduced from select mortality tables as being appropriate to “damaged lives”, i. D. The middle term models the hump at age 23 that is found in many mortality tables. Apr 9, 2019 · We also use as the corresponding force of mortality for . (i) Find the force of mortality of a new born. increasing hazard rate), or (3) a Aug 15, 2021 · De Moivre’s law provides great flexibility of mortality calculation. force of mortality. May 3, 2022 · About Press Copyright Contact us Creators Advertise Developers Terms Privacy Policy & Safety How YouTube works Test new features NFL Sunday Ticket Press Copyright 3 = loge(x +i) = - loge(i -d) = the force of interest or the force of discount. F. 05 0. This is the more traditional notation and has been used by several other authors. This post briefly reviews the Gompertz model, highlighting the relationship between the two Gompertz parameters, \\(\\alpha\\) and \\(\\beta\\), and the implied mode age at death. 5) where µ(0) x is the force-of-mortality associated with some standard life table as of some arbitrary but fixed calendar-time origin t = 0. We then define an important quantity known as the force of mortality, introduce some actuarial notation, and discuss some properties of the distribution of future lifetime. Gompertz Mortality Gompertz (1825) suggested that a “law of geometric progression pervades” in mortality after a certain age Gompertz mortality can be represented as µ(x) = αeβx α is known as the baseline mortality, whereas β is the senescent component Makeham (1860) extended the Gompertz model by adding a constant γ (a) Constant Force of Mortality and Constant Force of Interest: Consider a policy that pays $1 immediately at the death of the insured. As its name states, \(\mu_x = \mu , \space \forall x \). The following formula:Ax*=AxA+AxB2has been suggested to approximate the value of Ax. This results implies the following very useful twice the force of interest, 2δ. The last term reflects the exponential pattern of mortality at the adult ages, while the first term reflects the fall in mortality during childhood. Jan 1, 2022 · Age-specific mortality data are usually available in discrete intervals (e. ii CONTENTS 1. Objective : We express the Gompertz force of mortality in terms of b and the old-age modal age at death M, and present similar relationships for other widely tive of the function lnl(x)is equivalent to the force of mortality µ x. 0102014559835175 for men and 0. Special casesconstant force Constant force of mortality - all throughout life Assume mortality is based on a constant force, say , and interest is also based on a constant force of interest, say . Will this approximation overstate or understate the true value of ax? estimation results of the model obtained by the Gradient Descent method, the force of mortality equation is acquired that produces SSE value in the amount of 0. If anything, so many synonyms attest to ON ESTIMATING THE FORCE OF MORTALITY by J. By knowing the mortality rate during the entire life span of an individual, one can calculate and forecast an individual’s life expectancy and the survival rate at each age simply by applying this linear or piecewise linear model and estimating the parameters. Feb 18, 2018 · Introduction The Gompertz model is one of the most well-known mortality models. 17]: ~y+l/2- - ln(l - qy). Since this area is thus numerically equal to the number of deaths between ages x and x+k, the curve whose equation is y =,uxlx is called the Curve of Deaths [see 4; also see 3, p. The age-dependent Jul 1, 2015 · $\mu_{x}$ is the force of mortality, i. We prefer the subscripted x, however. Odense Monographs on Population Aging Vol. Respectively, they state that, for any x and any 0 ::; t ::; 1, (uniform distribution of deaths) (the Balducci hypothesis) (constant force of mortality) "~+t = constant . It is more convenient for us to discuss this law in detail later in Section 1. (2) This approximation gives values very close to the values obtained from the exact Formula for the Force of Mortality - Volume 22 Issue 3. com; 13,231 Entries; Last Updated: Sat Dec 28 2024 ©1999–2025 Wolfram Research, Inc. In words, the Gompertz mortality model is that the force of mortality (µx) increases exponentially with age (above some threshold age, usually taken tobesomewherebetween35and45). The familiar textbook approximation can be used to estimate the force of mortality from observed mortality rates [2: p. 8) we see that there exists a value of Hazard functions for all cause mortality for the US population in 1989. 3. q = probability of dying. In fact, today that same function has multiple names depending on the field you come from. 5, Odense University Press, 1998. Does it seem to be a realistic survival model for describing human lifetimes? What would you expect the force of mortality . Aside:-t p x is the probability that (x) survives further t years, μ (x + t) dt is the probability that x + t Among actuaries, force of mortality refers to what economists and other social scientists call the hazard rate and is construed as an instantaneous rate of mortality at a certain age measured on an annualized basis. [see Lecture 7, formula (k)] Alternatively, f T (x) (t)= t p x μ (x + t). The hazard rate of the occurrence of death at a point in time t—the limit as ∆t approaches zero—of the probability that an individual alive at time Question: Suppose that the force of mortality for a survival model is given by the formula: μ(x)=0. 9/[90−x] for 0≤x≤90 Calculate the approximate probability that a life age 40 dies within the next week. 5-23. First, use the Chain Rule to rewrite the equation as A bit of algebra and integration then leads to the conclusion that . If we know the force of mortality, we can also find the survival function. Survival models. Solution: (i) We have that µ(t) = − d dt lnS X(t) = − d dt ln 854 −t4 854 =− Force of Mortality The parallel development of Interest and Probability Theory topics continues in this Chapter. In this chapter we represent the future lifetime of an individual as a random variable, and show how probabilities of death or survival can be calculated under this framework. 2000, p. Odense, Denmark 19. (eds) Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries. Consider a non-smoker with the force of mortality µ x and remaining lifetime T x and a smoker with µ′ x = c·µ x, c>0 and T′ x whose lives are independent. Email:y. m = central death rate. Technically-speaking, all this machinery is best viewed from the perspective of a newborn. In a life table, we consider the probability of a person dying between age (x) and age x + 1; this probability is called q x. 1 Scope The design and maintenance of insurance programs, pensions and many forms of finance are underpinned by rates of many different sorts, such as interest rates, mortality rates and claim utilization rates. 2 Introduction 2. If x 1 < x 2 <…< x n and the values of lx 1, lx 2,…, lx n are given, we may wish to estimate the value of the force of mortality at a particular age xi. P(T′ x >T x). $\mu_x(x)$ is the force of mortality at age x but we want to find $\mu_{x+t}$ in order to find ${t}P_{x}$ = Pr(X>x+t/X>x)$ where X is a r. First Makeham (1867) [20] was a 3-parameter formula: µ x = A+Bcx or equivalently µ x = α Entrenched in the estimation results of the model obtained by the Gradient Descent method, the force of mortality equation is acquired that produces SSE value in the amount of 0. Odense University Press, Odense. Begin with `0 number of lives (e. It is analogous to a concept in financial mathematics called "force of interest," and an actuary should be aware of the way they are mathematically similar models--the former is applied to the notion of survivorship, and the latter is applied to the notion of the time value of money. For the greater stability we averaged the p (x) values which were already smoothed by 5-year moving averages, over 5-year age periods by: In a protected environment where external causes of death are rare (laboratory conditions, low mortality countries, etc. , F. INTRODUCTION In the a(55) Tables for Annuitants µx, the ultimate force of mortality at age x, was calculated by the formula (1) For the more recently published a(90) Tables the ultimate and select There are three widely used assumptions for fractional-age mortality, namely, uniform distribution of deaths, the Balducci hypothesis, and constant force of mortality [1, 2J. applications than the value of the force of mortality at age zero. 196]. Lecture: Weeks 9-10 (STT 456)Multiple Apr 2, 2019 · One such function is called the “force of mortality“, or “hazard (rate) function“. The central death rate is defined by (3) and (5) as the deaths in 12 months divided by the average population over 12 months. uk November 2018 Abstract This paper studies an optimal portfolio problem for a DC pension plan considering both interest rate risk and longevity risk. Two alternative methods of estimation, each used in standard tables, are discussed in some detail. 5 Mar 6, 2008 · We can get from hazard to survival curves by considering what we would expect to happen to 100,000 females born in 2006. , van den Berg Jeths A. 3 Force of mortality of T x In deriving the force of mortality, we can use the basic de nition: x(t) = f x(t) S x(t) = f 0(x+ t) S 0(x) S 0(x) S 0(x+ t) = f 0(x+ t) S 0(x+ t) = x+t: This is easy to see because the condition of survival to age x+ t supercedes the condition of survival to age x. p = probability of living. Then tpx = exp − The force of mortality of the joint life status is the sum of the Check what this formula gives in the case of independence. Suppose therefore that in calendar year t, the force of mortality µ(t) x at all ages x is assumed to have the form µ(t) x = µ (0) x + bx t (6. (2001). 280 THE FORCE OF MORTALITY FUNCTION [May, integral (12) gives the area under the curve y =pxgJ between the ordinates erected at x = x and x = x+k. Conditional on survival to age x, the probability of dying within n years is: n qx = n d x=`x = (`x `x+n)=`x. The distribution function of $T=T(xy)$ is \begin{eqnarray*} F_T(t) &=& \Pr(T(xy) \leq t)= \Pr(\min(T(x), T(y)) \leq t) = 1- \Pr(\min(T(x), T(y)) > t) \\ Although the constant-force assumption is also recognized today as a simple analytical law of mortality, it has never been known as "de Moivre's second law" or any other such name. Function x (s) indicates the age at which survivorship is s, and μ (s) is the force of mortality at that specific survival level. Throughout we consider three types of mortality rate—the traditional qx, (which is often called the ‘initial’ rate), the central death rate mx, and the force of mortality (or ‘instantaneous’ death rate) µx. Miller the force of mortality is defined as: consider a deterministic process for the bond price then we can describe the bond price with the following differential equation Welcome - Statistics In essence, the equation represents a force of mortality that increases progressively with age in such a manner that log μ(x) grows linearly. It does remarkably well at explaining mortality rates at adult ages across a wide range of populations with just two parameters. Question: (5 points) The force of mortality for a certain population is exactly half the sum of the forces of mortalityin two standard mortality tables, denoted A and B. Mortality Tables l = number living. Under this assumption the force of mortality acting on (x) is a function of x + t. cussion. As a consequence, in practice, the force of mortality for noninteger ages can be derived from age-specific death rates by assuming either (1) a constant force of mortality within the age interval, or (2) a uniform distribution of deaths (i. This formula contains no reference to conditioning and can be used when the survival probabilities and the force of mortality are known from age x onwards. In this article bi-variate and multivariate force of mortality functions are introduced for the first … Expand Jan 1, 2022 · Thatcher AR, Kannisto V, Vaupel JW (1998) The force of mortality at ages 80 to 120. Pulpen 777 Nothing To Be Done ACTUARIAL NOTES CONSTANT FORCE of MORTALITY Exams!!! Pulpen 777 LIFE TABLE Probability that person age x will survive at least t years t (1) t px = exp (− ∫ μx+u du) 0 Complete expectation of life is (2) e̊x = ∫ ∞ t 0 px dt ACTUARIAL PRESENT VALUE and NET PREMIUM The actuarial present value of a payment of 1 payable immediately on death is ∞ (3) ̅ x May 17, 2019 · What should a reasonable force of mortality look like? Let’s start by looking at the examples we have considered so far. Tabeau E. 0 20 40 60 80 0. Tenenbein "Force of Mortality" published on by Oxford University Press. In 1825, Benjamin Gompertz proposed an exponential increase in death rates with age. In actuarial science, force of mortality represents the instantaneous rate of mortality at a certain age measured on an annualized basis. 3). Now assume that the force of mortality µ(x) is given and we want to find the survival function s(x). (3) One of the consequences of formula (2) is that a force of mortality satisfying Gompertz's law has a linear graph when plotted on semilog paper. The Force of Mortality is a fundamental concept in actuarial science that helps actuarial analysts assess risk and predict future events. d = number dying. This function is related to the standard probability functions (PDFs, CDFs, and SFs) that I discussed in the post “Families of Continuous Survival Random Variables, Studying for Exam LTAM, Part 1. (ii) Find the force of mortality of a life aged x. A Review of Demographic Forecasting Models for Mortality. , Ph. Section 2. In this case the formula simplifies to a Gompertz law of mortality. It is far less awkward, and Understanding the Force of Mortality in Actuarial Science. via a first order Taylor approximation at the center of the interval) Dec 8, 2022 · To make the force of mortality positive, we can define the force of mortality as follows: Definition. The Candidate will be able to: Identify the present value random variables associated with life insurance, endowment, and annuity payments for single lives, based on annual, 1/m-thly and continuous payment frequency. This suggests letting h tend to 0 or infinity in the results of $2 above. This results implies the following very useful 2 Introduction 2. The force of mortality µy and the aggregate death rate ly/Ty, may there- fore be regarded as limiting values of hmy. The exponential distribution is easy to work with, and has the memoryless property that survival probability is independent of age (which is clearly an unrealistic assumption for human mortality). d. wbpcj nevjxt oiabxtg jforjr qfuf tgfdl uqgihg auldr zmbl wvcy